Grant agreement no: 261633. Date: 1.4.2011-31.3.2013
FOCUS URL: http://www.focusproject.eu/
FOCUS (“Foresight Security Scenarios – Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles”) helped shape European security research to enable the EU to effectively respond to tomorrow’s challenges stemming from the globalisation of risks, threats, and vulnerabilities. FOCUS concentrated on alternative future EU roles to prevent or respond to incidents situated on the “borderline” between the internal and external dimensions of the security affecting the Union and its citizens. It did so by elaborating multiple scenarios, based on IT-supported foresight, in the form of alternative futures. These were rooted in threat integration and a comprehensive approach to future missions to provide security to the Union and its citizens.
FOCUS identified and assessed alternative sets of future tracks for security research in FP7 and subsequent programmes that will support the EU to adopt new roles in dealing with external threats, risks, and vulnerabilities. The main contribution of the FOCUS project was the development of an effective long-term prediction and assessment tool at EU level, populated with analyses done in the project. The time frame of scenario foresight in the FOCUS project was 2035.
FOCUS provided studies, security scenarios, roadmaps, and an IT-based Knowledge Platform for scenario foresight, with the latter offering a large number of practical tools such as scenario wikis, reference wikis, and a curriculum matrix for educating future security researchers.
New stakeholders of security research will comprise security forces other than military, for example public entities such as national and possible emerging EU customs and border protection, other national and international security agencies, as well as private entities. Stakeholders will moreover come from the banking, finance, economic, and health sectors. Other international organisations and NGOs will be stakeholders in European cross-disciplinary security research. With the concept of societal security increasing in importance, national and international non-profit civilian organisations will develop increasing stakes in security research.
Security research will contribute to improving an EU-specific legal compliance framework to collectively support and protect the security and safety of EU citizens against external impacts. Progressive standards and codes of conduct will be critical for enabling the EU to implement responsible technology governance. At the same time, multidisciplinary mapping of fundamental rights enforcement and the acceptability of security technologies and interventions will become paramount across the EU Member States.
Becoming both a more policy-informing and societally embedded enterprise, future security research will always face the problem of having to meet larger expectations with fewer resources. Discussions of effects-based approaches to comprehensive security, as applied to home affairs, will result in a more politically than strategically defined level of ambition on the side of the EU and its Member States, with capabilities developed that sometimes have limited effects on the real security challenges at hand.
Investments in the field of big data information management and information integration will be needed to ensure sustainable cooperation between all actors involved. Moreover, additional investments in interoperability and coordination related to information and communication technology, – between and within international organisations – will be required. Investments will also be required in the sector of non-military instruments for EU power projection, such as financial instruments, as well as on industrial strategies and identification of vulnerabilities and gaps of resilience.
Publications and presentations:
Männistö T., Hintsa J., and Urciuoli L. (2014) Supply Chain Crime – Taxonomy Development and Empirical Validation. International Journal of Shipping and Transport Logistics, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 238 – 255.
Abstract available at: http://www.inderscience.com/info/inarticle.php?artid=60784 [Accessed 6 September 2014]
Urciuoli L., Mohanty S., Hintsa J., Boekesteijn E., 2014. The resilience of energy supply chains: a multiple case study approach on oil and gas supply chains to Europe. Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, Vol. 19 Issue: 1, pp. 46 – 63
Urciuoli, L., Männistö, T., Hintsa, J., Khan, T., 2013. Supply chain cyber security – potential future threats. Information & Security:
An International Journal. Vol.29. http://dx.doi.org/10.11610/isij.2904
Tagarev T., Georgiev V., and Ahokas J. 2013. Evaluating the Cross-impact of EU Functions as a Global Actor and Protector of Critical Infrastructures and Supply Chains. Information & Security:
An International Journal. Vol.29. http://dx.doi.org/10.11610/isij.2903